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New Research Predicts Dramatically Greener Arctic in Near Future

By the 2050's, shrubs and trees could be growing hundreds of miles north of the current tree line in the Arctic.
Woods Hole Research Center

"Green" has become synonymous with "good" in many circles. Not inside the Arctic circle.

Two recent studies - one projecting into the future, and one reconstructing the ancient past - both lead to the same conclusion: The Arctic of the near future will be warmer, wetter, and dramatically greener, with more trees and less snow and ice. In the first study, published several weeks ago in the journal Nature Climate Change, models based on satellite data predict that, by the 2050's, shrubs and trees growing hundreds of miles north of the current tree line. The second study, published last week in the journal Science, used a sediment core to infer the climate and environment around an Arctic lake 3-3.5 million years ago, when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were similar to what they are today. The conclusion - it was several degrees Celsius warmer, got several inches more rain, and supported a robust forest.

Arctic forestation has major ramifications for the pace of global warming. Shrubs and trees stick up above the snow, absorbing heat that the white snow and ice would otherwise have reflected away from the Earth's surface. Plants also reduce snow's insulating effect, allowing permafrost to melt more rapidly. That permafrost holds what has come to be called the "carbon bomb" - a vast volume of the powerful greenhouse gas, methane. All told, there is serious concern that the greening of the Arctic could significantly accelerate global warming.

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